Force Majeure Tracker — Supply Chain Crisis

High confidence. Trailing 72h (1–4 Sept) show zero new operator FM declarations beyond restart-type LNG extensions. QatarEnergy extended cargo cancellations to Pakistan and Bangladesh into October, per Bloomberg traders 28 Aug–1 Sept; this is a Wave 1 Type 5 restart-type continuation, not a new escalation. Hormuz Strait remains at ~5–6 vessels/24h per live trackers (down from pre-crisis baseline ~88/day). No new kinetic events reported 1–4 Sept. BfG Rhine Kaub forecast shows partial recovery trajectory to 43–100 cm by late September, signaling stabilization of the non-Hormuz European freight shock. Restart-type FM count static at 6. No L4→L5 boundary-test Hard signals. Trend: Same, sustained.

High confidence. Three chokepoint sustained stress: (1) Hormuz: ~5–6 transits/24h per Straits.live (6% pre-crisis baseline); IRGC blockade active; US port blockade sustained through 1 Sept; reports of US drone strikes on Iranian tankers 2 Sept (unverified Windward). (2) Rhine: Kaub at ~40 cm, forecast recovery to 43–100 cm by late Sept per BfG (structural non-Hormuz FM, independent European climate shock, recovery trajectory visible but capacity constraints persistent through Sept). (3) Red Sea / Houthis: No new confirmed attacks 1–4 Sept; Bab el-Mandeb tanker throughput 35–40% normal. (4) Restart-type FM count: static at 6 (KPC FM2, SABIC "cannot estimate", EGA 12-mo, QatarEnergy 5-yr rebuild + conditional + pre-breakthrough + Edison extension to November; new Pakistan/Bangladesh extension to October adds no new facility, only buyer cohort extension). L4→L5 boundary test requires (a) Hormuz reblockade + multi-operator kinetic cascade, OR (b) simultaneous dual-system Hard escalation (Hormuz + Rhine both Hard expansion). Current state: All three chokepoints under visible stress; Rhine showing recovery signals; Hormuz and Red Sea static. QatarEnergy Pakistan/Bangladesh extension is restart-type signal, not systemic escalation. L4 Systemic maintained.