Force Majeure Tracker — Supply Chain Crisis

Day 145 of crisis 22 July 2026 Last updated 22 Jul · 00:02 UTC

▲ +2 new indicators since 19 July 2026 · 222 total tracked

Trend · trailing 72h

→Same

High confidence. Trailing 72h (19–22 July) shows kinetic operations continuing at reduced tempo compared to 16–19 July peak. Hard signals: (1) IRGC claims new drone interception of three US aircraft (21 July per IRNA); (2) Stolt Line statement on tanker-crew evacuation operations ongoing; (3) UK Defence Ministry reports continued IRGC mine-laying in northern Persian Gulf (21 July). Prior 72h (16–19 July) confirmed Belma strike, four-vessel seizure, zero LNG transits 11–19 July. Current 72h shows no new supertanker strikes, no new vessel seizures, and LNG transits resuming incrementally (one laden cargo 20 July per Lloyd's List). No regime-change escalation signal 19–22 July; no new operator FM declarations; restart-type FM count remains at 6. Kinetic pace did not accelerate; blockade posture unchanged (Strait formally closed per IRGC 12 July, ongoing but transits resuming). L5 transition probability conditional on kinetic re-escalation; current posture sustains L4. Trend: Same, sustained at L4 Systemic pending next escalation trigger.

Wave Intensity · 1–5

L4 · Systemic

High confidence. Restart-type FM count static at 6 (QatarEnergy 5-yr LNG rebuild, KPC FM#2, SABIC "cannot estimate", EGA 12-mo, QatarEnergy unaffected-facility ramp conditional, KPC FM lift unconditional on Strait reopening). Hard signals still hold all three L4→L5 boundary conditions: (1) Formal Strait closure ongoing ✓ (IRGC 12 July); (2) Distribution-tier regulatory FM ongoing ✓ (Qatar maritime ban 12 July); (3) De facto blockade ongoing ✓ (LNG transits recovering from zero 11–19 July to 0.3 cargoes/day by 21 July moving-average, still 60% below late-June baseline 0.8). Kinetic incident rate 19–22 July (claims only, no confirmed new strikes) is lower than 16–19 July (two confirmed strikes, one seizure event). L4→L5 boundary remains crossed on structure but transition not imminent absent kinetic re-escalation. L5 probability downgraded from >50% by 26 July to ~40% conditional on next 7 days without new major strikes. Wave Intensity held at L4 Systemic.

Today in one line

Kinetic tempo slowed 19–22 July; LNG transits resuming; L4 sustained; L5 probability ~40% by 26 July if escalation resumes.

Strong signals
Tier 1 · §5b

189

verify via CSV

Confirmatory
Tier 2 · §5b

supporting context

Operators
distinct, from CSV

—

across — countries

Commodity chains
in ledger

—

unique chains, ev.csv

Restarts
confirmed

—

indicator_class=Restart

Map · sites red
active disruption

—

— partial

Strongest leading indicator

Restart-type FM count · 6

Static 6 FMs; marks boundary between L4 and L5 regime. No new long-term "even when reopened" FMs in 72h signals containment at current Wave Intensity.

Pins reflect current FM status · red active · amber partial · green restarted · heat layer shows density Map state · Day 145

Category status board

Six categories · 72h pulse

FM Type 2

Shipping blockade — status change

IRGC formal Strait closure holds (12 July: "no vessels will be allowed to pass"). LNG transits recovering slowly: 0 cargoes 11–19 July, ~0.3 cargoes/day by 21 July (3-day moving average). Tanker strikes reduced; no confirmed new supertanker hits 19–22 July. Mine-laying continues per UK Defence Ministry (21 July). Blockade posture unchanged; kinetic tempo reduced.

Tier 1 · IRGC statement + AIS + Lloyd's List

FM Type 4

Qatar maritime distribution — ongoing constraint

Qatar's ban on maritime imports of food, chemicals, and industrial goods (imposed 12 July following Strait closure) remains in effect. No reversal signal 19–22 July. Direct impact on Arabian Gulf supply chains; feedstock flows into Lusail / Ras Laffan ramp-up conditional on lift. Classified Type 4 distribution FM, not production FM, because production constraint is secondary (Qatar can export by alternative routing).

Tier 1 · Qatar Ministry of Transport + Argus Media

Restart

QatarEnergy Ras Laffan — output ceiling reached

CEO Saad Al-Kaabi announced a halt to planned output ramp-up (post-Belma strike 16 July). Pre-FM baseline was 77 Mt/yr (pre-February 2026); FM-driven rebuild to 110 Mt/yr (planned 2028) now capped. This is a Type 5 Restart FM (FM-contingent, not kinetic damage). Restart-type FMs do not move Wave Intensity in isolation; this one is already in the count at "conditional ramp".

Tier 1 · QatarEnergy press release 17 July

Hard signal

LNG cargo transits — recovery trajectory

10-day moving average of laden LNG cargoes transiting Hormuz dropped from 0.8/day (late June) to 0 (11–19 July) to ~0.3/day by 21 July. First laden cargo observed 20 July (single point; 3-day rolling shows 0.3). No major LNG-industry FM declarations 19–22 July; recovery is logistical, not operator-initiated restart. Transits still 60% below baseline; blockade de facto sustained even if formal IRGC Strait closure is loosening operationally.

Tier 1 · Lloyd's List + Windward Intelligence + Port Authority

Kinetic

IRGC drone / missile activity — tempo reduced

IRGC claims interception of three unnamed US aircraft (21 July per IRNA); unconfirmed. No new confirmed vessel strikes 19–22 July (vs. Belma 16 July + four-vessel seizure 18 July in prior window). UK Defence Ministry confirms active mine-laying in northern Persian Gulf (21 July). Incident rate 19–22 July is ~0.5 events/day (claims + mine ops) vs. 1.5+ events/day 16–19 July (confirmed strikes + seizures). Tempo reduction is not de-escalation; blockade intact.

Tier 2 · IRNA + UK Defence Ministry + Khalij Times

Outlook

L5 Regime probability — downgraded 19 July estimate

19 July brief assigned L5 transition probability >50% within 7 days (i.e., by 26 July) conditional on sustained kinetic pace. Current 72h (19–22 July) shows reduced incident rate and incremental LNG recovery, lowering probability estimate to ~40% by 26 July. L5 threshold requires two new conditions: (a) new major supertanker strike + regime-change language (not "blockade"), or (b) IRGC formal closure extension beyond "until further notice" (e.g., 30-day closure declared). No such signal 19–22 July.

Tier 1–2 · synthesis

Disruption indicators · interactive feed

— of — events · filter by tier and class

Tier

Class

Window

Force-majeure landscape

Day 1 = 28 Feb 2026

Deeper analysis

Open the deep brief for full pathways and substitution lead times

— →

Industries hit

Commodity → sector → non-obvious second-order effects. Severity-coded, with the hidden-risk callout for each sector.

Open industry deep dive

— →

Golden screws

Single-source, outsized-blast-radius chokepoints. Substitution lead time and FM driver per component.

Open golden-screw deep dive

Today's posture · 3 actions

Operational verbs only

1. Escalation watch (T+3 days, decision point 25 July). Search every morning 23–25 July for (a) any confirmed new kinetic incident (supertanker strike, vessel seizure, air clash); (b) any new Tier-1 operator FM filing via Tadawul, SEC EDGAR, or press release; (c) any IRGC formal statement extending the Strait closure beyond "until further notice" (i.e., declaring >7-day closure). If any signal triggers, escalate to L5 transition immediately and move Trend to Worse. If no signal arrives by end of 25 July, publish 26 July brief at L4 Systemic, Trend Same, and lower L5 probability to ~30% by 2 August.

2. LNG recovery monitoring (daily through 26 July). Track 10-day moving average of laden LNG transits via Hormuz using Lloyd's List, Windward Intelligence, and Suez Authority vessel lists. Threshold: if Hormuz LNG transits rise to 0.5+ cargoes/day for 3 consecutive days (vs. current 0.3/day), flag as Strong de-escalation signal and prepare brief for L5 probability downgrade to <25%. If transits fall back to zero for >3 consecutive days, flag as re-escalation trigger and escalate L5 probability to >60%. Current rate of recovery (~0.1/day per 3-day window) is insufficient for L5 de-escalation; need sustained 0.5+/day recovery.

3. Restart-type FM watch (daily through 29 July). Monitor Tadawul, SEC EDGAR, and company press releases for (a) any new operator FM declaration with "cannot estimate return" or "even when Strait reopens" language (which would raise count to 7 and trigger immediate L5 transition), or (b) any formal lifting of one of the six existing restart-type FMs (which would lower count and reduce L5 probability). Current count: 6 (QatarEnergy 5-yr, KPC FM#2, SABIC, EGA, QatarEnergy output-ceiling, KPC lift-conditional). Change in this count is the most sensitive leading indicator for Wave Intensity shift. Set daily alert for any Tadawul "material event" from operators QatarEnergy, KPC, SABIC, Saudi Aramco, ALBA, EGA; check within 2 hours of filing.

Watchlist · 24–72h

Each item testable on horizon

IRGC kinetic incidents — confirmed new strikes on vessels (tankers, general cargo, or LNG carriers) in Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman. Threshold: ≥1 confirmed strike 23–25 July triggers L5 transition. Source: CENTCOM, Lloyd's List, AIS confirmation, tanker owner statement.

By 25 July · escalation

New operator FM declarations — any Tier-1 operator (Saudi Aramco, ALBA, EGA, KPC, KNPC, Methanex, LyondellBasell) filing "even when reopened" or "cannot estimate" language. Threshold: 1 new restart-type FM raises count to 7 and triggers L5 escalation immediately. Source: Tadawul, SEC EDGAR, company press release.

By 25 July · escalation

LNG transit recovery rate — Hormuz laden-cargo moving average. Threshold: if 0.5+ cargoes/day for 3 consecutive days (vs. 0.3 current), flag as de-escalation. If drops back to 0 for >3 consecutive days, flag as re-escalation. Source: Lloyd's List, Windward Intelligence, Suez Authority, Port Authority traffic data.

By 26 July · status check

US military posture — frequency and location of CENTCOM air operations near Hormuz / Persian Gulf. Threshold: if >3 strikes per day confirmed by CENTCOM (vs. 0–1 estimated 19–22 July), flag as kinetic escalation and trigger L5 watch. Source: CENTCOM press releases, FDD military-ops tracker, Bloomberg / Reuters defense desk.

By 26 July · escalation

EU / Japan downstream industry FM — any new force-majeure declarations from European refineries, Japanese chemical plants, or Korean power utilities citing LNG / crude shortage. Threshold: 1 new major downstream FM (€100M+ revenue impact) signals Wave 3 re-acceleration. Source: company press release, Lloyd's List casualty, industry analyst (Argus, ICIS).

By 29 July · cascade status

Recent force-majeure declarations

Last 14 days · status as of today

Operator	Site / Chain	Wave	Type	Status	Date	Source
IRGC Navy	Strait of Hormuz blockade	W2	T2	Active	2026-07-12	IRGC statement
US Military	Supertanker Belma strike	W2	T2	Active	2026-07-16	CENTCOM
IRGC Navy	Four-vessel seizure	W2	T2	Active	2026-07-18	IRGC statement
Qatar Ministry	Maritime import ban	W2	T4	Active	2026-07-12	Qatar Transport Ministry
Stolt Line	Tanker crew evacuation	W2	T2	Active	2026-07-14	Stolt Line statement
UK Defence Ministry	Mine-laying operations (Persian Gulf)	W2	T2	Active	2026-07-21	UK Defence Ministry
QatarEnergy	Ras Laffan output ceiling	W1	T5	Active	2026-07-17	QatarEnergy press release
KPC	FM#2 (even when reopened)	W1	T5	Active	2026-05-19	KPC Tadawul filing
SABIC	Jubail complex (cannot estimate)	W1	T5	Active	2026-04-12	SABIC Tadawul filing
EGA	Al Taweelah (12-mo rebuild)	W1	T5	Active	2026-04-10	EGA statement
QatarEnergy	Unaffected-facility conditional ramp	W1	T5	Active	2026-04-20	QatarEnergy guidance
KPC	FM lift (unconditional on reopening)	W1	T5	Active	2026-05-25	KPC Tadawul filing
Lloyd's List	LNG transits (Hormuz)	W2	T2	Monitoring	2026-07-21	Lloyd's List traffic data
Windward Intelligence	Vessel AIS tracking (Strait)	W2	T2	Monitoring	2026-07-22	Windward Intelligence

Cascade timeline

T+0 / T+7 / T+30 / T+90 from active Wave 1 events

T+0 (22 Jul)

146 FM events detected from 28 Feb (Day 1) to 22 Jul (Day 145). Wave 1 (production / price): 111 events. Wave 2 (allocation): 23 events. Wave 3 (physical absence): 12 events.

T+7 (29 Jul)

Scenario A (40%): count stable ~146; W1 stable 111 (~76% of total). Scenario B (35%): count +1–3 (escalation FMs); W1 → 112–114 (~77%). Scenario C (25%): count stable or −1 (restart lift); W1 stable.

T+30 (21 Aug)

Scenario A: count stable ~146; kinetic incidents accumulate +3–5 Type-2 events; restart-type FM count stable 6; downstream cascade tail clears (no new Wave 3 FMs). Scenario B: count +5–8 (new FMs); restart count 7+; L5 regime declared. Scenario C: count ~145; restart lift removes 1; L4/L3 declared.

T+90 (20 Oct)

Scenario A: Strait fully operational by 15 Oct; all restart-type FMs lifted by 31 Oct; total FM count decays to ~120 (closures). Scenario B: Strait remains closed; restart count 7–9; FM backlog grows to 180+; regime change declared; multi-year closure priced in. Scenario C: Partial routing stabilizes; restart count 5; Wave Intensity L3–L4 through 2027.

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