Force Majeure Tracker — Supply Chain Crisis

Day 81 of crisis 19 May 2026 Last updated 19 May · 10:18 UTC

Trend · trailing 72h

→Same

High confidence. No new Hard operator FM declarations 16–19 May. QatarEnergy extended force majeure on its liquefied natural gas supply through mid-June (Tier 1, Bloomberg 4 May). Iran announced the creation of a new authority to oversee shipping and transit operations through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's top security body said the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) would regulate and administer transit operations in the Strait of Hormuz (Tier 1, 18 May). Iran is moving to formalize a state-administered transit-toll regime under the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), with reported per-transit payments of up to $2 million settled in Chinese yuan and Bitcoin transfers to IRGC-linked wallets (Tier 1, Windward 19 May). Transit volumes remain a fraction of pre-conflict averages, with Windward identifying 167 commercial-size vessels in the Strait of Hormuz area on May 5, 2026, of which 146 were operating dark (Tier 1). Restart-type FM count static at 4 (QE 5yr LNG mid-June, KPC FM#2, SABIC "cannot estimate", EGA 12-month). No primary operator Hard restart confirmed 16–19 May. Trend: Same.

Wave Intensity · 1–5

L4 · Systemic

Lotte Chemical reported consolidated first-quarter revenue of 4.99 trillion won and a net profit of won (W) 33 billion in the first quarter (Tier 2, Seoul Economic Daily / ICIS 11 May). Iran is moving to formalize a state-administered transit-toll regime with reported per-transit payments of up to $2 million settled in Chinese yuan and Bitcoin; six India-flagged vessels transited inbound on May 18 as a coordinated cluster following bilateral engagement with Iran (Tier 1, Windward 19 May). Wave 3 cascade deepening: bunker fuel prices have jumped from about $500 per metric ton before the conflict to more than $800 in early May (Tier 1, SAFETY4SEA citing AP 12 May); damage from three attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City will cost about $20bn a year in lost revenue and take up to five years to repair, impacting supply to markets in Europe and Asia (Tier 1, gasworld 5 May citing Shell announcement). Multi-quarter supply planning embedded. Boundary test (maritime operator Type 4 bunker FM OR KPC/SABIC extend past 20 May) not triggered. L4 Systemic confirmed; no Hard signal warrants Wave Intensity move.

Today in one line

Iran PGSA toll regime live 18 May ($2M/transit in yuan/Bitcoin); Lotte Q1 profit 11 May; bunker $800–846/mt SGX; no new Hard FMs 16–19 May; L4 Systemic confirmed.

Strong signals
Tier 1 · §5b

157

verify via CSV

Confirmatory
Tier 2 · §5b

supporting context

Operators
distinct, from CSV

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across — countries

Commodity chains
in ledger

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unique chains, ev.csv

Restarts
confirmed

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indicator_class=Restart

Map · sites red
active disruption

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— partial

Strongest leading indicator

Restart-type FM count · 4

This count marks the transition from L4 Systemic to L5 Regime: a restart-type FM with 6+ month duration and "even when reopens" language signals long-term supply regime change. Current count (4: QE 5yr, KPC FM#2, SABIC "cannot estimate", EGA 12-month) is stable; any addition or extension past mid-June triggers L5.

Pins reflect current FM status · red active · amber partial · green restarted · heat layer shows density Map state · Day 81

Category status board

Six categories · 72h pulse

0 · 72h window

New FM declarations

Zero new Hard operator FM declarations 16–19 May. Comprehensive search of operator press releases, Tadawul/stock exchange filings, SEC Edgar 8-K, and Tier 1 trade press (Argus, ICIS, Lloyd's List, S&P Global Platts, Chemical Week) confirmed no new force-majeure filings from any Tier 1 operator (QatarEnergy, Saudi Aramco, SABIC, KPC, KNPC, BAPCO, EGA, Lotte, LG Chem, Hanwha, Wanhua, Dow, Sadara, Formosa, TPC Singapore, Chandra Asri).

Tier 1 signal. Flat vs prior 72h.

1 · Iran PGSA

Iran formalizes Hormuz toll regime

Iran announced the creation of a new authority to oversee shipping and transit operations through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's top security body said the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) would regulate and administer transit operations (18 May). Reported per-transit payments of up to $2 million settled in Chinese yuan and Bitcoin transfers to IRGC-linked wallets . Six India-flagged vessels transited inbound on May 18 as a coordinated cluster following bilateral engagement with Iran, indicating functional safe-passage arrangements outside the coalition framework . Structural shift from kinetic to administrative control; not a new FM but a regime change signal for Wave 3 cascade.

Tier 1 signal. New administrative regime, 18 May.

1 · Extended FM

QatarEnergy LNG FM through mid-June

QatarEnergy extended force majeure on its liquefied natural gas supply through mid-June, as the Strait of Hormuz remains almost entirely closed to tanker traffic (4 May, Tier 1). QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure on LNG supply to mid-June . This is a Type 5 Restart-type FM with 6-month duration. Count stable at 4 restart-type FMs (QE 5yr, KPC FM#2, SABIC "cannot estimate", EGA 12-month). Boundary test (extend past 20 May) not triggered; L4 Systemic holds.

Tier 1 signal. Restart-type FM (Type 5). Declared 4 May; in effect through 15 June.

1 · Profitability signal

Lotte Chemical Q1 2026 return to profit

Lotte Chemical returned to operating profit in Q1 2025 with 73.5 billion won, its first profit in 10 quarters (Tier 2, Seoul Economic Daily 11 May, ICIS 12 May). Despite disruptions in the global supply chain and rising raw material prices due to heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the company improved profitability through optimized production operations, including agile raw material sourcing and flexible adjustments to operating rates . Positive signal for restart-type recovery; May 29 Yeosu target remains on track per forward guidance. Planned Daesan spin-off and merger with HD Hyundai Chemical (Yeosu Yeochun NCC integration) still on 1 June timeline.

Tier 2 signal. Q1 earnings release 11 May; no 16–19 update on May 29 restart target.

1 · Bunker fuel cascade

Type 4 Distribution FM ongoing: bunker $800–846/mt Singapore

Bunker fuel prices in Singapore, the world's largest marine refueling hub, have jumped from about $500 per metric ton before the conflict to more than $800 in early May, with inventories tightening (Tier 1, SAFETY4SEA 12 May citing AP). The Iran war's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off the supply of bunker fuel, which helps move the 80% of globally traded goods that are transported by sea, and a shortage of bunker fuel will translate to higher shipping costs, increase consumer prices and hurt the bottom lines of businesses worldwide (Tier 1, AP 12 May). No formal Type 4 bunker FM filed by maritime operator 16–19 May, but price-based distribution stress is confirmed. Multi-quarter duration expected as Wave 3 cascade.

Tier 1 signal. Type 4 Distribution (price-based, no formal FM). Persists 16–19 May at elevated prices.

1 · Regime control shift

Strait of Hormuz transits shift to Iranian administrative regime

Iran formally launched the Persian Gulf Strait Authority on May 5, 2026, a uniformed bureaucracy with a domain name (PGSA.ir), a contact email, and a transit-permit regime that converts Hormuz from international waterway into a vetted toll plaza. Six days before US-Iran negotiators meet in Oman for a fourth round, Tehran has stood up the legal-administrative scaffolding it intends to point to after any deal. PGSA is not a pressure tactic to be bargained away. It is the institution Iran wants negotiators to inherit (Tier 1, House of Saud 13 May). The IRGC-designated Larak Island corridor — now the only authorized transit route under PGSA — runs along the northern shore inside Iran's 12-nautical-mile territorial sea; every PGSA-authorized transit now runs through a corridor between Qeshm and Larak islands inbound, and just south of Larak outbound — both routes entirely inside Iran's 12-nautical-mile territorial sea (Tier 1, House of Saud 13 May). Structural change to Hormuz transit regime; not a new FM but a control-architecture signal for long-term Wave 3 cascade.

Tier 1 signal. PGSA formalizes; toll payments accepted 18 May. Regime shift indicator.

Disruption indicators · interactive feed

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Tier

Class

Window

Force-majeure landscape

Day 1 = 28 Feb 2026

Deeper analysis

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Industries hit

Commodity → sector → non-obvious second-order effects. Severity-coded, with the hidden-risk callout for each sector.

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Golden screws

Single-source, outsized-blast-radius chokepoints. Substitution lead time and FM driver per component.

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Today's posture · 3 actions

Operational verbs only

Confirm Lotte Yeosu 29 May restart in writing by 24 May. Cross-reference with HD Hyundai Chemical 1 June spin-off filing (Seoul Exchange KRX) to verify Daesan divestiture timing. If either milestone slips beyond 24 May, assume downstream naphtha relief delays to 15 June minimum. Update Q2 margin guidance for 15–20% naphtha cost floor through June.

By 24 May · escalation risk if silent

Monitor Saudi Aramco / OPEC+ output data (weekly Tanker Trackers, Vortexa) for Yanbu ramp-up and Ras Tanura restart timeline by 22 May. Target: confirm 2.5M bpd Yanbu throughput by 1 June (vs. current ~1.5M bpd). If Ras Tanura offline extends past 15 June, flag as Scenario B escalation signal; trigger supplier diversification to Russian/African crude by 25 May.

By 22 May · escalation if Ras Tanura offline extends

Brief procurement and logistics leadership on PGSA toll regime operational status by 21 May. Obtain current PGSA payment documentation (screenshots of approved transits, toll receipts in yuan/Bitcoin) from shipping brokers or customers with live transits. Assess: (a) average transit time under PGSA (target <72h for clearance); (b) toll cost range ($1–2M per vessel) and payment method acceptance (yuan, Bitcoin, USD blacklisted?); (c) vessel eligibility (flag, ownership, insurance class). Input into Scenario A/B/C routing cost models by 25 May.

By 21 May · critical for June routing decisions

Watchlist · 24–72h

Each item testable on horizon

KPC FM#2 extension past 20 May or new FM#3 (Shipping Type 2, crude export limit). This is the L4→L5 boundary test: a third Kuwait FM with 6-month restart language signals regime-wide long-term supply loss, not tactical disruption. Monitor Tadawul filings and OPEC+ official statements (daily) for language change from "force majeure declared" to "cannot estimate reopening" or "even when Strait reopens, exports limited to X bpd".

By 20 May · escalation if extended

SABIC Tadawul filing revision or public statement on Jubail facility return date. Current status (Day 80): "cannot estimate" (declared 41). If extended past 20 May with "at least 6 months" or similar language, count as new Wave 3 FM (Type 3 Downstream feedstock). If restart date confirmed (e.g., "Q3 2026" by 20 May), count as de-escalation and mark Scenario A trajectory locked in.

By 20 May · depends on update

Iran PGSA toll regime operational data: daily transit counts (Windward, AIS tracking), average toll per vessel, and vessel flag / ownership acceptance patterns (Western vs. BRICS alignment). If daily transits exceed 20 vessels for 3 consecutive days (vs. current ~9 per day on 11 May), flag as Scenario A partial recovery signal. If toll escalates above $2M or new cargo restrictions announced (e.g., refined products banned), flag as Scenario C risk.

By 28 May · measure Hormuz traffic normalization

Lotte Chemical Yeosu cracker scheduled restart date confirmation (media, stock exchange filing, customer notification). Target: written confirmation by 24 May from Lotte / HD Hyundai / Yeochun NCC of 29 May (or revised) start date. If date slips to 12 June or later, assume Scenario B and trigger 15% permanent cost increase in naphtha feedstock budgets for Q2–Q3.

By 24 May · confirmation restarts Q3 momentum

Bunker fuel price trend (Singapore VLSFO weekly). Current: $800–846/mt (12 May). Watch for: (a) retreat to <$750/mt = Scenario A signal (supply relief); (b) hold at $800–850/mt = Scenario B (grinding on); (c) spike >$900/mt = Scenario C (kinetic re-escalation or PGSA toll hike). Chart weekly; flag deviation from Scenario A baseline ($700–750 by 25 June) as contingency trigger.

By 25 May · measure Wave 3 distribution relief

Recent force-majeure declarations

Last 14 days · status as of today

Operator	Site / Chain	Wave	Type	Status	Date Declared	Source / Tier
QatarEnergy	Ras Laffan LNG Trains 4/6	1, extended Wave 5 (restart-type)	1 Production + 5 Restart	Offline; FM through mid-June	28 Feb 2026 (Day 1); extended 4 May (Day 75)	Bloomberg Tier 1 / QatarEnergy press release
EGA	Al Taweelah Smelter	1, Wave 3 (18-month rebuild)	1 Production	Offline; 12-month rebuild	3 April 2026 (Day 36)	Bloomberg / EGA press release Tier 1
SABIC	Jubail Chemical Complex	1, Wave 3	1 Production	Offline; "cannot estimate" restart	16 April 2026 (Day 48, Tadawul filing)	Tadawul / SABIC Tier 1
Qatalum	Qatar Aluminium Smelter	1	1 Production (gas-dependent)	Controlled shutdown; dependent on Strait gas resumption	15 March 2026 (Day 16)	Company press release / Reuters Tier 1
ALBA	Sitra Aluminium Smelter	1	1 Production (power/gas)	Offline 19%; second event Day 29	11 March 2026 (Day 12); second 29 April (Day 32)	Bahrain Petroleum Company press release Tier 1
KPC	Kuwait crude oil + products (Strait shipping)	1, FM#2 Wave 3 (Type 5 restart)	2 Shipping + 5 Restart	FM#1 declared 12 Mar; FM#2 ("even when reopens") declared 11 May (Day 72)	12 March 2026 (Day 12); 11 May 2026 (Day 72, Tier 1 filing)	Kuwait Petroleum Company press release / Reuters Tier 1
Saudi Aramco	Crude oil (Ras Tanura terminal, Strait throughput)	1, FM#1 (Shipping Type 2)	2 Shipping	OSP repricing signal (5 May): partial recovery expectation by 12 June	Implicit in Q1 earnings statement; formal FM not filed; OSP pricing implies mid-June relief	Saudi Aramco OSP press release 5 May (Discovery Alert) Tier 1
Lotte Chemical	Yeosu cracker (naphtha-dependent)	1, Type 3 feedstock stress; restart expected 29 May	3 Downstream feedstock + 5 Restart	Offline; Q1 profitability restored (11 May); restart guidance 29 May	11 May 2026 (Q1 earnings); 1 June Daesan spin-off, Yeosu integration to YEO NCC expected	ICIS / Seoul Economic Daily Tier 2; KRX filing
Iran PGSA	Strait of Hormuz (maritime toll regime)	Wave 3 (regime control shift)	6 Cascade / administrative control	Live; toll collection active; bilateral carve-outs (India, China, Russia); Western vessels restricted	Announced 18 May 2026 (X/Twitter); operative since mid-May	Windward / Lloyd's List / House of Saud Tier 1
Bunker fuel (Type 4)	Singapore VLSFO (maritime distribution)	Wave 3	4 Distribution	In effect; price $800–846/mt (12 May); no formal operator FM but price-based distribution stress	Ongoing since late Feb 2026; current price data 12 May 2026	Ship & Bunker (Tier 1), SAFETY4SEA (AP report Tier 1)
Lotte Chemical Pakistan	PTA / paraxylene (downstream)	1, Type 3	3 Downstream feedstock	FM on Kuwait feedstock; sourcing Oman spot paraxylene	Declared March 2026 (ongoing); Oman substitution active	Profit Pakistan 11 May (Tier 2)
Lufthansa / KLM / Qatar Airways	Middle East routes (jet fuel, capacity)	Wave 3	4 Distribution + demand destruction	Route suspensions ongoing; capacity cuts; fuel surcharge	Declared late Feb / early March 2026; ongoing through May 2026	Airline press releases / EASA CZIB Tier 1

Cascade timeline

T+0 / T+7 / T+30 / T+90 from active Wave 1 events

T+0 (Day 81 · 19 May)

164

Cumulative Hard signals (Tier 1): 155. No new Hard operator FM 16–19 May. QE LNG FM extended to mid-June (4 May, Tier 1). Iran PGSA toll regime formalized (18 May, Tier 1). Bunker fuel $800–846/mt (12 May, Tier 1). Restart-type FM count static at 4 (QE 5yr, KPC FM#2, SABIC "cannot estimate", EGA 12-month).

T+7 (26 May)

166–169

Forward forecast: +2–5 new signals expected (Scenario A baseline). Lotte Yeosu restart confirmation (24 May deadline) → +0–1 signal if confirmed on-track. Bunker fuel price observation → measure vs. $750–800/mt band. PGSA daily transit count trending (target >15 vessels/day by 26 May). If KPC FM#3 declared, count escalates +1; if SABIC extends "cannot estimate", +1. Scenario B probability increases if 2+ signals miss baseline.

T+30 (18 June)

167–178

Scenario A baseline (45%): +3–14 signals cumulative. Lotte Yeosu restart (29 May) confirmed +1. Saudi Aramco Yanbu ramp-up + partial Ras Tanura restart (12 June) implicit in OSP pricing; no new FM if on track. Bunker fuel $700–750/mt (de-escalation signal). PGSA transits >25/day (partial relief). Scenario B (35%): +5–15 signals (KPC FM#3, SABIC extend, bunker holds $800+, PGSA toll governance stress). Scenario C (20%): +8–20 signals (kinetic re-escalation, new Type 2 + Type 4 FMs, comprehensive restarts delayed).

T+90 (18 August)

169–185+

Scenario A (45%): Cumulative 170–180 signals. Lotte Yeosu, QAFCO, Mitsubishi Kashima partial restarts active Q3. Naphtha feedstock stress easing; bunker $650–700/mt. QE Ras Laffan Trains 4/6 still offline (3–5 yr rebuild); EGA Al Taweelah offline (12-month). KPC, SABIC "cannot estimate" timelines extending into Q4. Scenario B (35%): 180–190 signals. KPC crude allocation restricted; SABIC Jubail restart pushed to Q4. Maritime insurance / refueling hub capacity Type 4 FM active. Scenario C (20%): 190–210+ signals. Systemic Wave 4 / L5 Regime in effect; multi-quarter restarts delayed; supply fragmentation deep.

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